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Reprints and Permissions. Rocheleau, JP. Can local risk of West Nile virus infection be predicted from previous cases? A descriptive study in Quebec, — Can J Public Health , — Download citation. Received: 09 Aug ; Accepted: 09 Dec Disclaimer: Ahead of print articles are not considered as final versions. Any changes will be reflected in the online version in the month the article is officially released. Ouhoummane, A.
Fortin, F. We asked regional public health boards to contact each of the case-patients to see whether they were willing to participate in a study.
With data on acute infections detected in blood donors, an estimate of the degree of underrecognition was produced. With the number of cases detected, the number of donors tested, our estimate of the duration of viremia, an estimate of the population at risk, and the ratio of WNND to total cases, an expected number of WNND cases was calculated. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the range of several of these variables. To address the knowledge gap on population level predictors of human WNV incidence in Ontario, we applied a multivariable mixed modelling approach that incorporated key environmental and population factors at the PHU level.
Our findings are similar to previous studies, which also found higher winter temperatures to be significantly predictive of increased rates of WNV transmission in an upcoming season. The purpose of this study was to establish geospatial and seasonal distributions of West Nile virus vectors in southern Ontario, Canada using historical surveillance data from to We also set out to determine whether elevation and proximity to conservation areas and provincial parks, wetlands, and population centres could be used to improve our model.
Our results indicated that the data sets for Anopheles quadrimaculatus, Anopheles punctipennis, Anopheles walkeri, Culex salinarius, Culex tarsalis, Ochlerotatus stimulans, and Ochlerotatus triseriatus were not suitable for geospatial modelling because they are randomly distributed throughout Ontario.
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. J Wildl Dis.
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